A Condition or a Promise?
First let's take a closer look at the psukim describing his "neder," in order to determine more precisely what is his promise and what are his conditions.

Before continuing, review 28:20-22 and take note of how the "neder" divides into two parts:

It is unclear, however, where the if clause ends and the then clause begins. Let's take a look: The first four clauses are clearly part of the condition, as they reflect precisely what God had just promised Yaakov in his dream several psukim earlier. [Compare with 28:15; see also Rashi.] (See Board #4.)

Similarly, the last two clauses clearly describe what Yaakov vows to do once the conditions are met. They describe Yaakov's promise to establish a Bet Elokim at this site upon his return from Charan and offer a tithe of his possessions. (See Board #5.)

However, the middle clause (5) - "and Hashem will be my God" - can go either way. Although it can refer to either a condition or promise, each option poses considerable difficulty. (See Board #6.) On the one hand, it doesn't appear to be a condition for two basic reasons:

On the other hand, it does not appear to be a vow, either. How could Yaakov possibly accept Hashem as his God only if God fulfills His promises?! Could Yaakov Avinu have been so 'spoiled' that he would accept God only if God is good to him?

Virtually all classical commentators tackle this question in their commentaries.

Rashi and Rashbam explain that it is indeed a condition. (See Board #7.) Rashi brilliantly solves the first problem raised above [(a)] by explaining this phrase as a reference to God's earlier promise to Avraham at brit milah - "l'hiyot l'cha l'Elokim" (see 17:7-8).

Rashbam solves the second problem [(b)] by explaining this clause simply as a summary (or generalization) of the first three clauses.

On the other hand, Ramban, Radak, and Seforno all explain this clause as the vow. (See Board #8.) They all solve the problem raised above (that Yaakov appears to accept God only on condition) by explaining that Yaakov vows to intensify his relationship with God should (or actually when) God fulfills His promise. Surely, Hashem will always remain Yaakov's God no matter what may happen. But Yaakov promises that if (or when) he returns 'home' he will dedicate his entire life to God's service.

[I recommend that you see these "parshanim" inside. Iy"h there will a separate shiur on this topic.]

By the way, Ramban adds an additional pirush, whiwhich he categorizes as "sod," that explains the clause as neither a condition nor a vow; it is a statement of fact. Yaakov simply states that only when he returns home to Eretz Canaan will it (de-facto) become possible 'for Hashem to become his God,' since one cannot develop the fullest relationship with God outside of the Land of Israel. (I've toned down Ramban's statement a bit in translation - see it inside (28:21) for a bit of a shocker.)]

Based on all these explanations, Yaakov's intention now becomes clear. Yaakov's "neder" in no way reflects any doubt on his part that God will fulfill His promise. It rather reflects his readiness to fulfill the divine purpose of his newly-confirmed "bechira." Instead of merely thanking God for this promise, Yaakov initiates a reciprocal relationship! Recognizing that he is indeed the 'chosen son,' Yaakov volunteers to establish a House for God - a site where the divine purpose for his "bechira" can be realized.

In Part II, we explain what aspect of Yaakov's dream led him specifically to this conclusion.

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